This evening one breaking news after the other hit our 24x7 news channels both are much awaited and partially anticipated and both with the same dateline, New Delhi. The verdict in the horrific case of December 16 Delhi gang rape where a 23-year old student of paramedical was Gang raped in the moving bus and then thrown out. she was later died in the hospital and this incident jolted the whole nation. Trial court in its verdict pronounce to hang all four accused till death. The other big story came from political arena where BJP parliamentary board made the official announcement to elevate four times Gujarat chief minister Narendra modi to the post of their Prime ministerial candidate. This announcement comes as the contemplation of upcoming assembly elections also as the part of long term plan to project modi as the national leader.
Unlike congress BJP has traditionally announces their Prime ministerial candidate well before the elections, at least they are doing so since 1996 when Vajpayee was the candidate. With the constant lobbying by BJP's ideological wing, the Rastra swayamsewak sangh and call of party cadre to announce his candidature. Party workers who are audaciously demanding for Modi's candidature which was nothing more than a statement gave them occasion to celebrate.
Due to having no other candidate of such stature to advertise as their PM and since Modi's so-called growth model in Gujarat made him undisputed popular leader led BJP to elect Modi as unanimous leader for the post. There is no doubt that he has to face opposition from his own party veterans vis-à-vis leader of opposition sushma swaraj, mm joshi and patriarchal figure of BJP LK advani who oppose this announcement before state legislative elections. In last few months two crucial announcements related to modi always have advani,s opposition Which many analysts see as generational shift from advani. Who he has nurtured. It was the refreshing departure from the terrible placidness and acquiescence that generally accompany the anointment of leaders. But will it possible for modi to do the job he has assigned without having advani and other senior leaders on the board.
Modi’s way has ample impediments will he be able to get that 272+ figure let have a look at the challenges he may have.
Challenge no.1- critical face-off within party
His work will start from home. The tussle within the BJP has harmed it every time especially during election years. Now when sushma swaraj and LK advani with his other loyalist objecting this announcement modi must try to do his best to build a consensus among the party cadre and take them together to work as a team. The conflict within party has also the point of criticism by their NDA partners who see this as detrimental to NDA’s aspiration of becoming new coalition at the centre. There were great debates over the projection of modi as the PM candidate as many leaders in party itself compare shivraj singh chouhan with him. The lack of one voice for modi is not good for party management. The other blow they had just before the election came as the walk off by their 17-year old associate JD (U). Congress on the other hand has handful of strategies to limit modi, all party members will have to unite otherwise certainly party may face another loose with their own doings.
Challenge no.2- bring other parties to join NDA
National democratic alliance who is now a vulnerable coalition of a mere three dominant parties cannot form the government of its own. The mystical figure of 272+ that modi and his party is talking about is not just laborious but impossible at this stage. When Political pundits forecasting about possible third front and declining dominance of two major parties at centre to form a majority government then assuming this is merely means making castles in the sky.
Moreover, if BJP having modi as mascot then they probably get somewhere 180 seats who then with the support of shiv sena and akali dal and other parties i.e. AIDMK and TDP if they join can form a government. But the task is strenuous when they shrink to just 150 then what? BSP, SP, and old friend JD (U) unlikely, no left, no DMK, may not be YSR. Role of regional parties will be crucial for any party’s victory. For TMC, RJD and other former NDA allies want to distance themselves from modi in fear of losing minority vote if they back modi. But all these calculation may not have much importance in case BJP on its own get 170 seats and then prospect of forming a government will strengthen and regional parties with some close door negotiations can join NDA because ideological differences never conquer the desires to be the part of ruling coalition at centre.
Challenge no.3- His tarnished image as anti-minority
Even among his ‘chaay karod gujarati’ or six crore gujaratis around 10 per cent Muslims says they have accepted his growth model and have moved on from carnage of 2002 communal riots there are still secular forces questioning his pro-minority and religion free definition of growth. Some 15% (180 million) of India's 1.2 billion people are Muslims. They comprise over 11% of the voters in six states, including the politically crucial state of Uttar Pradesh. It is unlikely that they will warm to Mr Modi.
His old association with RSS and role in Gujarat riots has come to haunt him now when he is on his way to Delhi remember Supreme court has already given clean chit to modi for his role in gulberg society and Gujarat riots case. But clearly he has should at least apologise for his failure to contain the massacre, may be to set a precedent for congress for its alleged role in 1984 anti-sikh riots. Several parties clearly stated their position on forging any alliance with BJP and have said they won’t compromise on their secular credentials. When he was aspiring for national stage he must show and he must try to appease minorities outside Gujarat in upcoming assembly elections by what he has done in juhapur, ahemdabad, and other Muslim majority places in Gujarat. His definition of secularism as ‘India first’ he has chanted on several oratory practices outside Gujarat must be his answer to his critiques.
Challenges no.4- Make some chums
Shiv Sena spokesperson Rahul Narvekar said more regional parties will join the NDA. "After 1999, we had a coalition of 24 parties. Let me assure you that a number of regional parties and a number of other people will be joining the NDA fold," he said. Taking view of this statement and teachings of Vajpayee modi will have to make some new friends so that he at least has backing when the time comes to prove majority. AIADMK, TDP, TMC and several regional parties who have at some point or other found modi aptly favourable.
The ‘vikas purush’ has a lot of stumbling blocks, he needs to take the cognizance of each possible back door propaganda against him. The debate over he will become prime minister or not will kick off after this announcement. Although at times he has said, he is Hindu nationalist, and his criticism of being dictator will not work at central stage. Modi needs to understand that Indians may not have same choice as his Gujaratis. His last adventurism in Karnataka without clear strategy and where ground realities were changed completely since 2008 when they formed their first government in south. He is mindful of blueprints for his assignment.
Is he a polarising figure or not, will he be able to take everyone along like his pedagogue Vajpayee. Opinion polls consistently rank Modi as the favorite potential candidate for prime minister, but the complexity of India's political equations and a first-past-the-post system mean victory is by no means assured.
There is plenty to talk but certainly there is one thing to celebrate after 66 year of Indian independence that a tea vendor is now in fray of leading this great nation, India is a land of equal opportunities, the dream of our forefathers we all share.
